2014-01-03

2 links relating to Sino-Japan matters

1. The Mainichi Revelations around the Chinese Prior Notice Regarding its ADIZ

2012-10-17

投资自己熟悉的公司,一旦有问题立即沽离


投资股票的第一原则:投资自己熟悉的公司,一旦有问题立即沽离

就是因为熟悉壹传媒,所以当其一旦变成了大股东的私人玩具和宣传机器,就知道它是兔子尾巴,长不了了。2007年的决定,結束賓主關係,
今天来验证。


2012-06-16

这不是分明在说香港的苹果日报吗

Zhang Ziyi Files Lawsuits


。。。
In other words, this is the so-called sensationalistic "exposé" that Boxun and other websites typically produce.  According to a person who has direct contact with the overseas Chinese democracy movement, there are many Chinese-language media outlets which claim to be promoting democratic reform in China and holding up the mantle as representatives of "justice."  In practice, they say whatever they want against China under the Communist government in the name of justice.  Most often, they aim to release their emotions irregardless of the facts of the matter.
Ultimately, this caused most information and journalism to be tainted with subjectivism and biases.  As such, these media outlets have lost their objectivity and accuracy, and become propaganda tools.  They are no different from the Communist propaganda that they criticized for lack of objectivity and facts, becoming two sets of extremes.  The result is that many readers who are interested in learning about the truth in China are tired and disappointed, and this is detrimental towards democracy inside and outside China.


2012-05-03

黑脸美青天

乌云盖顶,六月雪纷飞,

唯见一角青天。

在成都市,在朝阳区,

包拯去矣,今有美青天。

2012-04-22

zt: 王立军悬案解析 补天篇 2.1

王立军悬案解析 补天篇 2.1

王立军事件公认的两大悬疑,第一,王立军为什么要倒薄。第二,薄熙来谷开来为什么要杀海伍德。第一个问题,尼罗河已经作出了自洽圆满的回答。王立军倒薄是一个主动的精心策划的行动,目的就是为了一举拿下中国最大的黑帮首领。尽警察的职责,建惊天之伟业,垂万世之英名。当历史把这样的机会交给他,王立军只有一个选择,那就是肝脑涂地万死不辞。
本文的主题是就是第二大悬疑,薄熙来谷开来为什么要杀海伍德。其实,答案就在眼前,只是不用心看不见。本博的文章《周永康否认参与谋杀是什么意思》真正看懂的没有几个人。这篇文章的关键词不是“证据”而是“阴谋”。周永康首次证实杀海伍德是一个精心策划的阴谋。看清楚这一点,什么情杀财杀的猜测都是空气。我们就从阴谋出发开始本文的讨论。
尼罗河在《海伍德被杀案真凶是谁》里写道,薄家的密友死于薄家之手,非为情仇即为财仇。这是一定的道理。现在这个道理要彻底推翻了。要推翻的不是结论而是前提,海伍德已经从薄家的密友变成薄家的仇敌,而且同时成为薄熙来和谷开来的仇敌,必须坚决消灭。
财杀情杀众说纷纷
路透社引述匿名消息人士称,怀疑被薄熙来妻子谷开来杀害的英国商人海伍德(Neil Heywood)生前曾答应替谷转移一笔资产,海伍德提出了谷意料之外的提成要求,两人产生矛盾,令谷萌生杀机。消息人士指出,谷开来与薄熙来夫妻感情已多年不和,海伍德被谷开来视为「精神伴侣」(soulmate)。
这条消息很难自圆其说。海伍德的态度很明确,过去的分成不公平,不要钱可以,但是不能不要公平。这里不是多少钱的问题。生意伙伴对合作的规则不满意是很自然的。如果海伍德对谷开来说真的是soulmate,即使是海伍德说这一单你就全划进我的账上,谷也应该念点旧情。就算日后钱上的事从此两清,有什么必要非杀不可。从另一个角度来看,如果真的海伍德以公开薄家海外资产来威胁,海外自然有代理人替他保存文件,甚至可以替他公布文件。杀海伍德并不能掩盖问题,只会使事态向不利于薄家的方向迅速恶化。
英国《泰晤士报》引述认识谷开来的英国消息人士说,谷开来2001年在英国逗留期间,曾与海伍德在南部海滨城市伯恩茅斯以情侣身份在一栋公寓楼内同居。英媒透露,海伍德生前与薄熙来妻子谷开来是恋人关系。谷在英国逗留期间,曾短暂与海伍德同居。消息还说,两人关系从薄熙来要求谷开来放弃事业开始,而薄氏夫妇已没有真感情多年。而消息说,薄熙来亲自给他的警卫员张晓军下命令处死海伍德,似乎更证实了薄的杀人动机。
GKL
这种动机分析更是荒谬,谷开来与海伍德关系最密切已经是10年前薄瓜瓜还在英国上学的时候。薄熙来本人荒淫无度对谷开来早就已经不是秘密。投桃报李,薄熙来不应该因为妻子的不忠非到杀人不可的地步。即使要杀也不应该博取北京上位的关键时刻。再退一步,为情而杀不应该由谷开来下手。自從薄熙來2007年出任重慶市委書記以後,海伍德與薄熙來家的關係就「冷卻」了。海伍德被杀之前,薄瓜瓜早已离开英国。海伍德甚至长达一年的时间里没有与薄家来往。就算真有问题也都事过境迁成了历史旧账,不可能导致薄家非杀海伍德不可。
杀人犯法谋杀更犯法,这谁都知道。对薄熙来杀人动机的合理推测,必须符合一个基本条件,海伍德的生命已经对薄熙来构成威胁。这种威胁理论上应该比谋杀罪的威胁更加严重,只有杀掉海伍德,才能使薄熙来脱离危险。上面提到的财杀情杀都不符合这个基本条件,所以不能成立。
雾迷山城谍影重重
海伍德与薄家疏远一年多后突然回到薄熙来的地盘,必然是应谷开来相邀而来。薄熙来心腹全程护送,在谷开来的安排下住进地处偏僻的南山酒店。这些细节表现出整个行动的计划性,这就是阴谋论的第一个明证。
众所周知,海伍德本人曾经为英国情报机构有关的一家公司工作。由曾供職英國情報部門軍情六處人員創辦的戰略情報公司Hakluyt發言人指出,去年十一月在重慶死亡的英商海伍德,生前曾向該公司提供諮詢服務。美国媒体指称,四十一岁的海伍德曾为英国情治单位「军情六处」(MI6)效力;英国「卫报」报导,海伍德介绍西方企业到大陆,他同时为位在伦敦市中心 的Hakluyt & Company担任约聘人员,这家公司十七年前成立,专门搜集企业情报,在纽约、新加坡等地设有分公司,许多员工曾为MI6工作。英国「泰晤士报」报导,海伍德的朋友都对他在大陆的活动守口如瓶。Hakluyt公司承认海伍德偶尔为他们工作,但是坚称其工作从来没有涉及薄熙来。
有一条新闻泄露了海伍德英国情报局确实有直接关系。《每日电讯报》说,“英国前情报机关头子嘲笑海伍德是个典型的滑稽人物,因此根本不适合敏感的情报活动。”。
从公开信息中看到,海伍德对薄家最具威胁性的表白是,海伍德告诉谷开来,如果认为太贪婪,他就不再介入资产转移,也不会拿一分钱。海伍德还说,他可以曝光事件。这一段话原本是作为海伍德与薄家有经济纠纷的证明。但是,值得注意的的是海伍德要曝光的,不仅是薄家的海外帐目,而且是“事件”。
上文排除了薄熙来杀人的两种可能动机,那么是什么样的“事件”一定要杀海伍德才能守住秘密?这当然是必须海伍德本人亲身活着作为人证才能证明的事件。换句话杀掉海伍德就没有人能证明事件的真实性。反之海伍德一旦被捕,事件必然曝光,薄熙来一定完蛋。海伍德死亡之后,薄熙来有可能安全度过危机,海伍德的代理人非但不会公开“事件”,反而继续保持“事件”的高度机密性。甚至有可能在未来恰当的时机恢复与薄熙来的联系,让这个“事件”继续发展下去。这种“事件”只有一个可能性,英国政治间谍海伍德已经成功策反薄熙来为英国服务。
在这样的理论框架下,“事件”的整个过程就没有任何悬疑了。海伍德在一定的时机向薄家公开了自己的英国间谍身份,要求谷开来的合作,通过薄熙来得到中共最高层情报。这个时机就是谷开来已经将海伍德当作“精神伴侣”而不能自拔的时候。海伍德手里有薄熙来的经济把柄,薄熙来慑于对儿子的前途和自身名誉地位的考虑,被海伍德成功策反答应在一定的程度上合作。但是海伍德的胃口越来越大令薄熙来感到不安,谷开来也因此而忧郁烦躁,海伍德则以曝光事件威胁薄熙来只有尽量配合。英国情报局认为薄熙来有重大的长远价值,所以指示海伍德减少对薄熙来的压力。
导致薄熙来不得不杀人灭口的并不是海伍德对薄熙来有什么直接威胁,而是海伍德两年前就已经被中国谍报机关总参情报局秘密盯上。很可能内部有人将向薄熙来泄露情报,海伍德可能随时被捕,已经不可能安全离开中国。薄熙来知道再不下手灭口自己必然栽在海伍德手里。这样就拉开了重庆南山大酒店的惊魂一幕。谷开来以庆祝生日并且有重要情报为诱饵请君入瓮,海伍德一到就格杀勿论。
为了确保计划的成功,薄熙来派出最忠实的亲信张晓军亲赴北京,转达谷开来的口信,然后全程监护海伍德飞赴山城。在南山酒店,谷开来亲自用氰化钾加入酒里毒杀海伍德。海伍德喝下后立刻感到有毒,设法把大部分呕吐出来,但已经来不及了,毒性使他失去了反抗能力,谷开来和张晓军又给海伍德灌入更多的氰化钾。从张晓军北京拿人到海伍德暴尸山城,完成整个计划只用几天的时间。
第一个得到酒店报告海伍德在客房内死亡的是重庆警方。王立军和下属到达现场后通过简单的现场勘查,已经基本可以确定是他人毒杀。他们发现海伍德的呕吐物并且从中检测到了氰化钾。在最短的时间里完成了技术文件和并且密集封存证据。王立军知道死者与薄熙来的关系。但是对这种关系背后的秘密一无所知。他按照薄熙来的指示要求执行警员以心脏病死亡作现场记录但是遭到拒绝,只能用饮酒过度作为官方结论。这时海伍德遗孀到达重庆。谷开来与其密谈。家属和领馆人员确认海伍德尸体后对警方报告没有提出任何异议,尸体随后火化。
王立军凭共事多年对薄熙来的了解,觉察到这个海伍德的死不同寻常。于是暗中布置亲信开始调查拿到杀人嫌犯的证据。直到2012年1月28日,向薄熙来正式亮剑:你夫人谷开来与海伍德命案有关。两天之内,薄熙来将王立军撤职并逮捕审讯调查警员11人杀死其中两人,一人自杀身亡。三位以身殉职的警官很可能就是直接接触证据的人,薄熙来试图找到证据但是藏匿证据王立军很可能独立完成没有让任何人知道。2月6日,王立军携带证据叛逃美国领馆。
有人说王立军倒薄有高层推手,尼罗河认为这种可能性不排除,但是到现在为止还没有任何高层人物涉入的迹象。另外,王立军事件的整个过程历时不到十天,其中的战机转瞬即逝不容丝毫延误,远程命令根本无法运行。事件中的每一个环节王立军完全有能力独立完成,知道的人多反而可能泄密。最后,高层即使鼓动王立军倒薄也不会指示他用逃入美国领馆的方式。然而事实表明这是王立军最大胆最有智慧的选择。王立军叛逃是整个事件中最光彩夺目的一笔,他不惧牺牲勇于战斗算度精准出敌不意,给薄熙来黑帮犯罪集团以决定性的致命打击,堪称中国历史上最完美无瑕的叛逃。
有人还可能会质疑薄熙来杀人为什么选择重庆,为什么用自己的家人。简单地回答就是只有这样才能在最大程度上保护自己,把事情干得不留痕迹。还有人会问为什么不能是他人毒杀嫁祸。回答也很简单,一个受过训练的特工,不会轻易涉足险境。谷开来是他信得过的人。海伍德绝对想不到,谷开来给他喝的东西里会下毒。当然决定性的还是看警方的证据。
如果回顾一下海伍德与薄家的交往,不难看出他打入薄家早就是处心积虑。所有的活动都以薄熙来为中心设计展开。后期已经意识到有人盯上准备撤退。
海伍德生于中产家庭,到北京学习中文后,1990年代初迁居大连,认识他的英国记者里德称,海伍德曾向许多中共官员寄信,希望建立联系,最后获时任大连市长薄熙来回应。据称薄熙来夫妇看上他曾就读贵族学府哈罗公学的背景,盼他能协助安排儿子薄瓜瓜赴英读书。海伍德不负所托,与薄家关系日渐紧密。作为薄瓜瓜英语教师的海伍德和大连籍的王某认识结婚,谷是介绍人。他对友人称,自己是薄家一个十几人的〝内部圈子〞一员。
薄熙来2004年担任商务部长后,海伍德一家也迁居北京开设顾问公司。薄熙来2007年主政重庆后,海伍德仍与他保持联系,但双方关系开始变化。海伍德对友人说,谷开来日益变得神经质,2010年左右,她要求〝内部圈子〞成员与妻子离婚,并向她宣誓效忠,海伍德拒绝。海伍德曾表示已约有一年时间没见过薄熙来。他开始担心人身安全,要求友人不要在电邮和电话中讨论敏感话题。他并透露,计划翌年年底离开中国,他向英国内政部为妻子与两名子女申请英国护照,但遭拒绝。
接下来数个月,海伍德对安全的担忧似渐消退,去年11月海伍德被召往重庆,15日在重庆酒店房内暴毙,根据北京司法部网站的律师资料,那天正是谷开来53岁生日。去年圣诞前夕,海伍德友人在伦敦为其举办追思会,有出席者称,所有悼念者都被要求不要接触王露露,且要等到王露露与两名子女离开教堂后才能离座,也不要询问海伍德的死因。
云散天开水落石出
在尼罗河完整解析薄谷精心策划诱杀海伍德之后,围绕着海伍德命案的迷雾如水落石出云散天开。首先,谷开来是打开薄熙来情报通道的突破口。为得到谷开来的合作,海伍德不惜诱以男色。在海伍德与谷开来共同度过的近一年时间中。海伍德成功地将自己被谷俘获为“精神伴侣”。而他自己对谷开来的态度与谷开来完全不对称。海伍德谈到谷开来时并没有任何赞美,「他说谷的精神状况不稳定,而且是个不可忽视的力量」,听起来不像是个迷恋谷开来的男人。这就是典型的间谍色诱。
海伍德遗孀的行为更是间谍理论的最佳注解。王氏不仅不要求调查还对亡夫的死因反复撒谎。即使从薄熙来手里拿了封口费,她没有参与毒杀完全没有必要寻求英方的保护。用间谍论来解释就很清楚了。王氏知道海伍德的真正身份。海伍德死后,谷开来与其密谈,警告王氏,海伍德的身份已经败露,被反谍机关毒杀。你只有老实配合否则一起去死。这就可以合理解释为什么她要求庇护的理由是杀死他丈夫的人要杀她和孩子。
回顾英美中各大媒体对海伍德案的报道,官方意图很明显,都在极力掩盖海伍德命案后面的重重谍影。4月10日新华社通稿称,2月6日王立军美领馆求庇护事发后,王反映了海伍德死亡一案,据查,薄妻谷开来(薄熙来妻子)及其子同尼尔・海伍德过去关系良好,后因经济利益问题产生矛盾并不断激化,现有证据证明海伍德死于他杀,谷开来、薄家勤务人员张晓军涉嫌故意杀人犯罪,已经移送司法机关。
英国媒体则用大量的细节爆料把公众视线引向财杀情杀。美国方面一反老大做派处处小心跟风不打半句妄语。私底下保存在情报委员会里最机密部门王立军案的卷宗连国会外交委员会都无权看一眼。而中国外交部对仍然是中国公民的海伍德遗孀王氏在中国本土得到英国领事保护的怪事到现在为止仍然不置一词。如果公开被人问起,外交部的回答一定是一无所知或者无可奉告。
薄熙来被海伍德攻破防线出卖情报背叛国家人民最后被迫毒杀英谍以自保。这不是小说电影,也不是诸多可能性之一,而是根据新闻报道推出的唯一正确的结论。薄熙来如此大尺度把自己暴露在情报机构的瞄准镜下,不中枪几乎没有可能。不用说海伍德本来就是间谍,即使他原本不是间谍,一个英国人以薄瓜瓜监护人和家庭教师的身份成功打入薄家。以薄熙来的的背景,政治地位和政治前途,英国情报局绝对不能放弃这样一个获取中国高层政治情报甚至直接影响中国政治决策的机会。薄熙来对英国情报局的价值难以估量。英国人有什么理由允许海伍德为了多分几个黑钱与薄熙来反目。他们要作的只会相反,用已经控制在手的薄瓜瓜和薄家海外巨额资产迫使薄熙来继续合作,尽全力保障薄熙来成功踏上中国政坛的巅峰。
尼罗河有文章说,不可以根据没有发现一事物发生的原因断定该事物不会发生,因为很多事物发生的原因是复杂的,无法穷举全部原因。有人可能会用同样的逻辑反驳nile本文的推论,认为不能认为一个事物有发生的原因就断定该事物一定会发生。因为人们可能认识不到其实有其他原因阻止该事物发生。逻辑上这是正确的,但是事实上错了。薄熙来拒绝与海伍德合作只有一个理由,那就是他对国家对人民对党的赤胆忠心。不论自己的声名地位如何受到损害,不论儿子的前途如果受到影响,立刻召回薄瓜瓜,坚决与海伍德一刀两断,甚至秘密举报逮捕海伍德。但是很明显,根据薄熙来的本性不存在这样的选项,这是不以任何人的意志为转移的客观现实。所以尼罗河的推断必然是唯一的排他的结论:薄熙来接受条件,同意与海伍德合作,成为党国内奸人民公敌。
大戏收场曲终人撒
尼罗河在王立军事件上的分析判断一直是铁嘴铜牙。世人皆知薄熙来罪可比二陈,尼罗河断定薄熙来的罪行是二陈与姬胜德的总和再翻一倍。如果此番论证再度不虚,应该可以看到谷开来因直接下手毒杀海伍德以故意杀人罪问斩。薄熙来因共谋毒杀海伍德并逮捕杀害调查人员同赴黄泉。薄熙来,谷开来非法囤积非法转移财富罪服从最高刑罚。周永康以包庇薄熙来,非法调动部队包围领馆,巨额贪污受贿罪处以有期徒刑N年。释放后受到软禁。薄熙来党羽依罪论罚,无一幸免。
王立军退出政界警界开课执教。然后告老在北京就地安置。唯一限制,三代内不得出境。海伍德遗孀带着孩子从此消失,很久以后在一个英格兰小岛上被人看见。北京领馆区“哈罗公学”校友纷纷离去。
出于既要维护党国形象又要给全党敲响警钟的考虑,薄熙来事件最深层的部分,尼罗河今日断言的薄熙来间谍案还有传说中的薄周同谋造反案以绝密文件的方式在高层传达。50年后,有人将这段真实的历史写成小说《中国龙年的中国龙》,成为反映中国高层权力斗争的经典一时间风靡全球,终于结束了中国人没有得到诺贝尔文学奖的历史。

2012-04-12

short note: Bo Xilai's problem

apart from his alleged crime in corruption and covering up of his wife's alleged murder, the problem of his anti-triad strategy is that he might have used this to demonstrate to the politburo that "rule of law" is useless. this is against Wen JB's believe that Chinese needs to first establish the rule of law, before the environment is created for a fair election in china.

i.e. bo's anti-triad campaign has an underlying agenda of working against the push for rule of law in China, intended to show that a strategy of hard hitting is more effective that following the law,

---

Bo Xilai’s Gift to Chongqing: A Legal Mess



By Stanley Lubman
Bo Xilai, the former Communist Party chief of Chongqing  stripped of all his party posts Tuesday night as part of an investigation into “serious discipline violations,” has done more than saddle Beijing with a major political scandal. He has also left behind serious legal problems that will take considerable effort to resolve.
Reuters
A construction labourer works on scaffolding near People’s Liberation Monument in Chongqing.
The problems largely stem from Bo’s “smash the black” campaign, a furious effort to crackdown on corruption and organized crime carried about by former Chongqing police chief Wang Lijun that, by all accounts, involved misuse of both the courts and the police. Quite apart from Bo’s own offenses, the central authorities of the Party-state are now faced with how to address the treatment of individuals who were punished during the last three years, perhaps unjustly, for their alleged criminal acts.
The most serious arbitrary use of power resulted in the conviction of thousands of people for alleged participation in organized crime. The campaign led to the arrest of more than 5,700 people and the seizure of more than $11 billion in illicit funds since 2009, according to The Wall Street Journal. Legal scholar Tong Zhiwei, speaking to the Financial Times, argues that under “smash the black” officials under the Chongqing party committee interfered with legal procedures and “clearly exceeded constitutional and legal powers.”
To carry out the campaign, the Financial Times says, “heavy use” was made of “measures that allow police to lock people away without trial,” presumably a reference to the use by the Chongqing public security bureau (PSB) of sentences to “re-education through labor” (RETL).
RETL was initiated in the 1950s as an alternative to formal arrest, accusation and trial by the courts. Functionally, it allows individuals to be deprived of their liberties through decisions made entirely within the police hierarchy. People subject to RETL are sent to labor in special camps or factories without a trial or access to legal counsel, and they are often denied their right to appeal the decisions to a court. The PSB may send them for as long as three years with the possibility of another year being added to the sentence.
This administrative sanction originally focused on minor crimes, but has been used to punish dissidents and other offenders who challenge the values and policies of the party-state. In one illustrative case in Chongqing at the height of Bo Xilai’s rule, a blogger was sentenced to one year in a labor camp for posting on a microblog a scatological joke that accused Bo of exercising undue influence over Chongqing’s courts.
An unnamed legal activist quoted in the Financial Times report mentioned above appears to suggest that the damage done by RETL in Chongqing is not permanent. “It is an administrative measure and can easily be reversed through administrative means,” the legal expert is quoted as saying, “so we’re likely to see a lot of cases re-examined.”
Probably more pressing for central authorities in Beijing is the question of how Bo Xilai and the former chief of Chongqing’s police, Wang Lijun, will be treated. This question has become more prominent with Bo’s arrest and suspension from the Politburo. As for Wang, some have already speculated that he might be prosecuted for treason. In the past, when high-ranking CCP officials have been punished, they have first received heavy Party discipline and expulsion from the Party, and were then prosecuted and given heavy jail sentences.
But there is a larger issue than Bo’s personal fate or the heavy-handed use of administrative sanctions, and that is what authorities will do to address Bo and Wang’s misuse of the courts A longtime observer of Chinese politics, Willy Lam, writes: “Perhaps the best indicator of whether the Hu-Wen leadership is ready to embrace some form of political reform and ‘universal values’ is whether the authorities will handle the investigation according to the rule of law.” He argues that the Chinese public and the international community have to be convinced that police work and judicial proceedings related to Bo’s rule will be conducted in strict accordance to the law.
More specifically, he argues that “alleged victims of Bo’s ‘anti-triad’ movement in 2009 and 2010, who have claimed that they were locked up and imprisoned according to the kind of ‘rough justice’ associated with the country’s yanda (‘strike had’) tradition, should be given opportunities to seek legal redress.”
In the wake of Bo Xilai’s downfall, some lawyers have expressed doubt about the extent to which cases could be reopened. Some wealthy entrepreneurs were sentenced to death or life imprisonment and their assets transferred to the state. One lawyer said that convictions for bribery or organized crime would be difficult to reopen, and expressed concern that “we could well end up just like after earlier political campaigns…cover it all with a blanket of silence and move on.” At this point, it’s still too soon to tell.

ZT: 西環亂港危中有機

西環亂港危中有機

 
筆者在梁振英勝選前兩周,已在本欄非常肯定地表示「與狼共舞」的時代已經來臨,這只是基於半年多以來的小心分析和觀察。與相熟朋友分享看法或在網上留言,一切皆以面對新時代的平常心,視之為事物的正常發展。

不過,結果令人非常詫異,很多我熟知的人原來極不接受梁振英同志當選的事實,幾星期以來的行為可說是慌亂反常,極為欠缺智慧。

梁振英真的那樣可怕?若是,大家更須冷靜,而不是以子虛烏有的「暴政可能性」互相恐嚇,把假設吹噓為必然發生,卻又沒有應對方案。請記着,火警或其他災難所造成的死亡,往往不是災難本身,而是人的慌亂。兩星期過去了,遊行也行過了,大家驚夠了沒有?

泛民政客邏輯混亂

是時候靜下來,討論一下在「振英時代」如何憑藉人民的力量跟專政者及其代理人好好較量一下。在「與虎謀皮,與狼共舞」的環境下,香港人還可以爭到民主嗎?筆者是絕對的樂觀,高度的肯定。

梁振英上場,筆者不認為是最壞的時刻,但出奇地很多人認為是。很多人對不能在最後關頭阻止梁振英當選而耿耿於懷,對於應該如何面對目前的時刻卻茫無頭緒,只有民粹盲動的反應;反對西環治港的大遊行算是成功,但之後須做什麼卻無人討論,大家只在享受假期之樂,這就是香港社運的常態。

西環治港的恐慌,是由泛民和支持他們的傳媒惡勢力大力吹起來的一陣怪風。

西環干預香港事務,並非始自今天,只是於今尤烈而已。

問題是,在一國的前提下,這是阻止不了的事情。一如中共一直警告港人,井水別犯河水,但港人以中國人血濃於水的大義為先,仍是年年數以萬計的人悼念六四,還要天天到中聯辦抗議專政者打壓人權。不管經濟還是政治,中共都是香港的極大持份者,以為中央不會干預香港事務,純屬自欺欺人。

要堅持西環不准就香港事務擔當任何角色?認為中聯辦的工作只限於中港事務當聯絡員?那兩年前為何一聲西環有請,泛民頭頭就什麼一國兩制的原則也不顧,便「應召」到西環共謀政制事宜?由原則到邏輯均也混亂矛盾的泛民帶領港人爭取民主,從來都是亂中無序,只能見步行步。

事到如今,梁振英上場,西環亂港之局已成, 「大家」應該怎麼辦?

「大家」是指泛民政客以外的政治有機力量, 「大家」應有自己的估量和立場,甚至共識。千萬勿以泛民主流的立場作為指導的依歸,過去兩個月的經驗其實已很清楚,泛民主流在重要的時刻只會依從大資產階級的旨意辦事,所以便出現了「只叫流選、不理流選結果」這種為大資產階級換人提供方便、與民主風馬牛不相及的荒謬現象。

政治從來都是合縱連橫,複雜得很,今次選舉的結果雖然是梁振英上台,西環亦因而力量膨脹,成為第二個權力中心,但危中有機,問題是大家能否把握機遇爭民主。

最令人驚喜的是,對政治從來深藏不露、無寶不落的誠哥在選後終於表態,支持香港的核心價值,支持香港有民主;這麼重要的訊息,知識分子不見討論,這可是筆者記憶中誠哥第一次這樣清楚表態。

小霸「謀反」大霸整頓

共產黨是大霸,地產黨是小霸,今次特首選舉只是大霸打小霸,與遭地產小霸欺凌多年的港人無關,大家甚而一定有所得益。

得益在於大霸的代理人為了爭取民心,亦要有所作為爭取連任,將會主動改善港人的社福。人人都說梁振英深不可測,但他要爭取民心的目標則是非常簡單和可以預知的。

小霸多年以來盡享政經專權,對上買通京官,對下騎在人民頭上,功能組別的政制本為照顧小霸的利益而設,亦盡為小霸的代理人長期佔據。今年9 月大霸就要收回特權,因為大霸對小霸在今次選舉過程中的不合作、與泛民串連等等難以安心,不對整個「謀反」集團加以整頓,香港在新君的治下難言穩定。

小霸要保持政治上的優勢,唯一出路只有支持民主,這就是筆者指危中有機的理由。看看英國的民主歷史就會明白,工業革命之後,新興的資產階級正是以平等、自由和民主這些動人的理念,從君主和貴族的手中奪取政治權力。

在複雜的政治板塊之中,港人特別是年輕一代須如何自處?筆者當然希望大家多看歷史和政治的書籍,以提升公民社會的參政能力,但遠水救不了近火,筆者只希望年輕人頭腦清醒,別為政客的民粹口號所利用。政治雖然複雜,原則卻是極為簡單,就是只做有利民主發展原則的事情。

集中而具體的,就是天天逼問梁振英交代2017 年落實特首普選的細節。資產階級着眼的是,要更換符合他們利益的代理人,所以會用這樣那樣的方法「打梁」;梁下台後,他們便可操控小圈子,更換代理人。

人民的目標只在長遠的民主發展,兩者之間的分別,十分清楚,與民主發展無關的運動,不要參與。

2012-04-04

ZT: 今年七一,回归基本

From 我 係 王岸然 wongonyin@yahoo.com

"今年七一,主調不應是「打梁」,而應只回歸到簡單的民主訴求——單一要求梁振英馬上交代2017 年的特首選舉的細節安排,便是最能團結最大多數人民的統一訴求、令最多人上街的最有效方法。"

===
秋後不算賬不算專政者  
選後不過幾天,廉署馬上高調算了許仕仁的賬,當然這也是在算曾蔭權的賬。
是誰要算本朝的賬?是梁振英同志嗎?筆者上周的分析,已經說「不是」,新君的焦點不在這裏,急於要算泛唐營賬的,是中共。梁振英天天說要大和解,他可是有點真心的,當家的人誰想有個吵吵鬧鬧的家?但當家的人可以代表太上皇的想法嗎?
全民論政風氣再現
香港論政的人不少,政治議題熱炒之時,連消閒節目主持人、或是本業編劇、或是本業文化評論、或是本業國際關係、或是本業新聞記者,甚至專長資訊科技的人,也來參加論政。回想2003 年時,連明星也站出來議政,近來開始又有這個勢頭了。
全民論政,不表示國民質素高,而是表示社會出了問題。筆者不是說不是出身政治系的人,就不要論政,因為筆者本業也不是政治,而是法律。自1985 年中在本報開始論政,筆者第一時間覺得要充實一下,於是到圖書館看了兩三本台灣書,講的是西方政治制度(political system)和思想(thoughts )。筆者希望今天有興趣論政的人,特別是年輕人,亦應先看看基礎政治學原理的書籍,最少應該知道什麼是議會制或是總統制、什麼是社會主義或是自由主義、什麼是唯物辯證。
有感而發的原因是,看見忽然論政的人太過民粹、太過人云亦云了;關心社會而思想懶惰的結果,便是受精於玩弄民意的政治勢力所利用。
筆者曾在本欄兩次談及梁振英是「馬基維理式政客」,似乎根本無人知道是什麼一回事,更沒有人找原版的《君王論》看看。
馬基維理是十五至十六世紀意大利佛羅倫斯的哲學家,是第一個令政治學說獨立於道德倫理之外成為學說的人,其影響力之大,大到所有馬基維理主義者都不肯承認自己是他的信徒,包括基辛格(美國前國務卿)。
馬基維理的名言很多,特別為歷代奸雄所欣賞的一句,大概是為求成就強國安民的偉業, 政客可以不擇手段(the end justify the means)。一眾政論「小學雞」在指控梁振英不誠實、言而無信之時,請玩味這一句話;這一格言令到不單梁同志心安理得,支持他的專權者也感覺良好,只笑「小學雞」大驚小怪,不懂政治。
中產階級現實偽善
不單是梁振英,歷代奸雄都可以在馬基維理的學說中找到影子。毛主席能拿下江山,中共能以專制手段治國歷時六十年而不倒,當然不是依靠面目全非的馬克思主義,而是從不宣之於口的馬基維理式權術和黑格爾的有機社會政治觀——用行業精英代表治國制度,正是出自黑格爾。
回到為何筆者認為梁振英不會急於對唐營秋後算賬的理由。《君王論》中教導,凡是新君取得一地的政權,特別是強行以軍事或權勢奪權,本身不受當地各方勢力所歡迎的新君,第一件事要做的,絕不是算賬,而是扶助原本受壓迫的大多數人,以及代表他們的少數力量。用中共的術語說,是團結大多數,孤立極少數;中共建國之始,就是以這手段迅速穩定專權,梁振英只是依循同一方程式而已。
過去五年,港人深受地產黨之害,眼見經濟有成,卻只能得到施捨式的小惠,民心思變,中產階級原本就是現實和偽善的(受教育多之故),口講核心價值,人人樂此不疲,心中的核心價值卻只是一間房子和一份好工而已。
梁振英的施政理念,由他寫下的近百萬字中可以看到,他對民主發展的承諾近乎零,卻曾經取得高民望,是因他遠比曾蔭權和泛唐營的資產階級了解港人的需要。
泛民唐營竟然「結盟」
今天不算賬不等於不算,只是梁振英不急於出手,廉署高調行動、林鄭強硬要對新界村屋執法,只是本朝遺臣急於向新君邀功而已,這本來不是一看守政府的常態。核心價值和新君委以要職,大家以為高級公僕以何者為重?能增加新君民望的措施,將在未來三個月主動出現。
急於算賬的,是北京的專政者,他們擔心新君無法有效管治,京官這一刻會比梁振英更為緊張香港的安定問題,亦所以必定會借助中聯辦和所有愛國愛港力量干預香港事務;梁振英到中聯辦謝票之餘,大概會委婉地請西環別幫倒忙。
最令京官感到不解者,是本來處於對立制衡的泛民和唐營,為何會在選舉前走在一起?這個「結盟」的過程如何發生?今後會否發展為一條「倒梁」的連線?這條連線與傳媒惡勢力和國際反華力量的關係又是如何?這筆糊塗賬北京不單要算,而且要速算,否則梁振英的寶座根本不可能坐穩。
泛民的爭鬥方向,由選前暗撐唐營、到鼓吹流選、到選後攻擊中央干預、盡力抹紅抹黑梁振英……,只知高舉只屬小資產階級的「核心價值」,都是不貼近民眾、自以為是的錯誤方向。
今年七一,主調不應是「打梁」,而應只回歸到簡單的民主訴求——單一要求梁振英馬上交代2017 年的特首選舉的細節安排,便是最能團結最大多數人民的統一訴求、令最多人上街的最有效方法。

2012-04-03

Another conspiracy theory, regarding the Bo-Heywood incidence in China

“when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?” 
   -- Sherlock Holmes

What could have happened under what we read from the recent events in China?

For backgrounds, see here, and here, and here, and google news.

In short, a British spy was involved, in which the family denied there was any suspicion regarding his death. The wife of the Chinese Mayor in a top city was allegedly the killer, who is the mother of a son who had been close to the British spy while pursuing study in Oxford.


I don't normally blog on politics, even less on gossips or conspiracy theories. But as our old friend Sherlock's saying going, "when you have eliminated the impossible..."


Here I am trying to lay out "whatever remains", and hope a few journalists who might bump into this blog may try to verify this theory.


1. It is very unlikely that Mr Heywood died for financial mishandling of the Bo family fund. Even if that is true, there is really no such need for Mrs Gu to kill him. So this leaves us with 2 possibilities
a) There is nothing dubious regarding his death
b) He is a spy and something fishy is involved with his work. (Since financial factors could not have contributed to such consequence, it must be political, and it must be related to his MI6 connection)


2. For the purpose of discussion (and more likely based on the press coverage recently), this blog entry is entirely based on the assumption 1(b). If indeed 1(a) is the reality, this blog entry becomes a total conspiracy theory. If that is the case, what could be most likely ("whatever remains") would be related to his spy work. If his spy work has not led to any risk in Mayor Bo's political career, e.g. that they discovered a spy is close to their family, there is really no need for the Bo's to deal with him secretly. Mayor Bo could simply go to his friends in the politburo and have Heywood expelled.


Since this had not happened, we are led to believe that the Bo-Gu family has something to hide. This could only mean that either Heywood controlled something related to the Bo's, or maybe even have controlled Mayor Bo himself as his agent. But if that is the case, there would have been major cover up from both the British and the Chinese governments. In addition, why would the wife has to get involved in all this? Would it be easier if Bo dealt with Heywood himself.


The fact that it seems the top level of the governments, esp the Brits, seem to be unaware of what happened at the time (hence spent not much effort before it transpired), leads me to suspect this has more to do with the prodigy son Guagua ("pumpkin" is what I would translate his name below).


3) It sounds all plausible, and even reasonable, if Mrs Gu killed Heywood in order to protect his son. At least this is perfectly in line with what a mother would do. But why would Mr Heywood harm a twenty something still pursuing his study? My speculation is that Heywood might have developed Bo Jr the pumpkin into his spy pawn. Mrs Gu discovered, and tried to do whatever she could to save her son.


4) How would Mr Heywood be able to develop the Pumpkin into his spy ring? The evidence probably comes from the fact that he was rusticated at Balliol in his second year, but ended up getting a 2.1 the following year. The pumpkin might have been so desperate in keeping his honour degree that he agreed to come in the spy ring in exchange for a 2.1.


It is almost impossible to cheat your way into a 2.1 at Oxford with money. But if the MI6 is at work, this becomes entirely possible. As we have heard (and know as a matter of fact), the MI6 have been developing agents in the academic in UK, especially elite schools such as the Oxbridge since the cold war. It is not surprising that they were able to engineer the pumpkin's acceptance into Balliol (as the decision is by the college, which is easy to control), and then rusticate him (the pumpkin has his own fault at this), before finally rehabilitated him as a favour.


If such theory holds, the entire event and its development seems more plausible, especially that there had not been serious charge against ex-Mayor Bo.


===
Such a theory could be verified, or refuted, if we have the answer to some other questions. The enthused journalist only needs to dig up the pumpkin's academic record, and see if there is any discrepancy in his records versus what he obtained as a result, e.g., his scores before his entrance into Oxford, his rustication, and his final public examination.